Tag: soccer
Weekend player analysis
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Player analysis
Using Form Lab Black’s player analysis tool we look at a three significant players who will be missing this weekend and see what their absence might mean.
N.B. Appearances mentioned below relate to starting and completing an hour unless otherwise specified.
West Brom v Norwich
Anthony Pilkington, Midfielder, Norwich
Anthony Pilkington …
How did the world cup draw affect your teams chance?
Money talks and as the World Cup draw was made, the market moved as people discounted a favorable or unfavorable draws. But for whom and how much?
The big winners were Argentina as the market shifted nearly 4% in their favour. Was England’s draw so bad? They slipped from 28 to 30 in decimal odds, only an decline of 0.25% in implied probability terms. They had little change, they have slightly less. Spain suffered the most as their chance of …
Do teams perform better or worse after European games?
Kindly brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs.
European hangovers?
At the start of last season we analysed the impact of European games on teams’ following domestic matches. What we found was that backing teams playing at home after an away trip in Europe was a potentially profitable strategy.
When removing games where teams faced a knock-out game in Europe for their next match (i.e. their domestic match was sandwiched between two European knockout matches) …
Europa league goal ratings
I like the Europa league, lots of matches split into two groupings. Though the liquidity can be a little light on certain matches. I like the range of matches though that are variable and often give you a chance to average out a strategy.
Tonight I’ll be keeping an eye on Spurs to see how they perform after there thrashing at the weekend. You would be surprised what clues you can pick up from watching how teams interact, perform and …
Champions league goal ratings
Goals ratings for this evening’s matches, projected variance to long term average. Ranked from most goals to least: –
Real Madrid vs. Galatasaray – 136%
Man City vs. Plzen – 132%
Juventus vs. FC Copenhagen – 128%
Paris St-G vs. Olympiakos – 114%
CSKA Moscow vs. B Munich – 114%
Shakhtar vs. Sociedad – 110%
Leverkusen vs. Man Utd – 102%
Anderlecht vs. Benfica – 98%
I have priced in 24 goals this evening.
Why friendlies can be a trading minefield
I wont be actively trading the international friendlies this evening. There are many things I can predict about how a football match will pan out, but doing this on friendlies is much harder and a bit more random. Basically I don’t know if I have an edge.
Friendlies, especially like those tonight, are for managers to try a few things out. Shove some fresh talent onto the pitch and see how they perform. Change shape, try a few tactics and …
Europa league ratings – 20:05 kick offs
I’ve priced in 33 goals in this batch of matches. Ranked from most goals to least, expected variation to long term average.
Tottenham vs. Sheriff Tiraspol – 138%
Az Alkmaar vs. Shakhter Karagandy – 123%
Sevilla vs. Slovan Liberec – 118%
Lazio vs. Apollon L. – 112%
Rapid Vienna vs. Genk – 106%
Estoril vs. Freiburg – 105%
Thun vs. Dinamo Kiev – 101%
Legia Warsaw vs. Trabzonspor – 97%
Maccabi Haifa vs. PAOK – 97%
Rijeka vs. Lyon – …
Champions league ratings for Wednesday
Excluding the early kick off.
Barcelona vs. AC Milan – 131%
Atl Madrid vs. Austria Vienna – 130%
Dortmund vs. Arsenal – 125%
Chelsea vs. Schalke – 110%
Napoli vs. Marseille – 109%
FC Basel vs. Steaua Bucharest – 108%
Ajax vs. Celtic – 103%
I’ve priced in 21 goals this evening.
Champions league ratings for Tuesday
Expected variation to average of goals scored. Most goals to least.
Plzen vs. B Munich – 137%
Paris St-G vs. Anderlecht – 129%
Man City vs. CSKA Moscow – 128%
Juventus vs. Real Madrid – 118%
Shakhtar vs. Leverkusen – 114%
FC Copenhagen vs. Galatasaray – 107%
Sociedad vs. Man Utd – 102%
Olympiakos vs. Benfica – 93%
I’m penciling in around 24 goals this evening.
England Expects – Another draw?
I’ll be watching but not trading tonight for the world cup qualifiers. As a rule of thumb I can’t trade something when I am emotionally attached to it. Tonight I’ll shall no doubt be shouting, moaning, directing and heading the ball at various points. I think I’d class that as an emotional attachment!
I’ll still do some stuff before the off and will probably carry that in play, but it terms of ‘hard core’ trading that can take a back …
Early kick off – Match preview
Many thanks to our friends over at Football Form Labs for this guest post.
Man City v Everton
While David Moyes’ first Manchester derby at The Etihad turned into a nightmare, his Everton team always had an excellent record here. With Roberto Martinez having good memories of playing City from last season’s FA Cup final, can The Toffees maintain their unbeaten start?
Everton are the only unbeaten side in the Premier League but City have comfortably won all three of …
Goals, Goals, Goals….
If you search the blog for ‘Europa league ratings’ you should find a bundle of comments on previous Europe leagues . I don’t tend to post them much now as I never really got much feedback. I’m happy to post them regularly again if people want, I use them and it should be of use to others.
Number of goals
The thing I like about the Europe league at this stage is that it allows you to aggregate risk significantly. …
Manchester Derby – Match preview
Many thanks to our friends over at Football Form Labs for this guest post, E&OE and all that. Football Form Lab is software that I use to help me spot patterns or trends in football matches. It can help you identify thousands of opportunities every week across over 40 different leagues. It’s very detailed and that’s why I like it, so much information. Form Labs is currently on offer and you can save 66% on a Form Labs subscription.…
Authorities close in on match fixing king
News this morning of many arrests in Singapore and the possibility that the leader of a global fixing ring, Dan Tan, is in custody.
If you want to understand why sports betting often gets such a bad press then here is the story that should explain why for you: –
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/dan-tan-the-man-who-fixed-football-8554751.html
I find it frustrating that corruption exists in sport and I believe its one of the reasons why if you manage to make some money in this market then …
Will the premier league goal drought continue?
Many thanks to our friends over at Football Form Labs for this guest post. Football Form Lab is software that I use to help me spot patterns or trends in football matches. It can help you identify thousands of opportunities every week across over 40 different leagues. It’s very detailed and that’s why I like it, so much information.
Form Labs is currently on offer and you can save 66% on a Form Labs subscription.
ANALYSIS – WILL THE …
The affect of the international break
First in a regular series of posts from our friends over at Football Form Labs. Endorsement follows….
Football Form Lab is software that I use to help me spot patterns or trends in football matches. It can help you identify thousands of opportunities every week across over 40 different leagues. It’s very detailed and that’s why I like it, so much information.
Form Labs is currently on offer and you can save 66% on a Form Labs subscription.…
Why the Rickie Lambert story is so rare
I remember being a small boy watching my local team, smoke wafting in my face, pie in hand until a crowd surge would dump it unceremoniously on the terrace! But hey, I’m showing my age.
I couldn’t help but let out a cheer when Lambert scored on his England debut as it’s a great story and it’s also something that gives people hope. When I stood on the terraces all those years ago I felt that if I tried hard …
Adding multiple soccer markets using Guardian
Bet Angel has so many useful features that many of them are hidden away and not immediately obvious.
For example, did you know you can quickly add all ‘Match odds’ markets for football (soccer) games happening on a particular date in the Guardian tool? And if you only want to bet on the premiership games, these are easy to add too.
Multi market trading is in high demand and the Guardian tool within Bet Angel is a great way of …
The footy season – My approach
Now the football is about to start again, here is an insight into how I approach the whole season.
Off-season
During off season I am most active on research and new information for the next season. I gather a huge amount of data during the season and during the off season I analyse it to take ideas forward to the next season. Same story this year.
I started analysing football matches in the 80’s, so I tend to focus on …
Pre-Season Football
Not much to be read into pre season friendlies TBH. As a manager you are looking at new players, either acquired or coming up through the ranks and assessing things for the next season. Results are not paramount, injuries are and when I looked into pre-season friendlies a few years ago there seemed to be little correlation to the start of the new season.
What I do look for though is new transfers, which does give a clue to performances …
Football – And so the hard work begins…
I failed in the ballot in my attempt to get tickets for the European Champions league final at Wembley today, such is life. I thought I may slip into some hospitality somewhere, till I saw the cost! It’s funny really, because I thought going to watch the Monaco Grand Prix would cost an arm and a leg. But on researching that, it seems I can still do that cheaper than the hour journey to Wembley! So Monaco will be on …
Today’s crop of dodgy football matches
The football season is pretty much over, but the fun and games are not it seems. With a few things to be decided in Italy there is still time for some unusual odds, volume and perhaps results? I have attached an image for posterity. At 09:00 this morning the matched bet volume on Verona vs Empoli was the leading traded volume on the football for the entire day for all matches!
Novara vs Lanciano – £15k matched, £11k on the …
My season long shot
May day is pay day for me, on a number of football markets. Season long bets mature and pay out months of hard work.
Relegation and promotion markets are something I play in each year and they can be quite fertile territory, if you have the patience.
Where to look
The new manager effect is a well understood phenomena in football. The old manager is given the boot and existing players suddenly have somebody new to impress. It’s a little …
How do the Italians get away with it?
I know I’ve posted a few times on this, but it’s really difficult to fathom in an age of close scrutiny and elevated morality in sport how matches like this occur. Today – Bari vs Cesena
I just downloaded todays football for analysis and on this match £30k has been match and all but a minor amount has been matched on the draw, which is going off odds on! Amazing, or it would be, if it wasn’t so predictable!
You …
End of season Italian football – I predict a draw
As I have pointed out in prior years at the same time, end of season Italian football can throw up some strange situations and odds. Here are the ‘top’ eight matches with the lowest price for the draw today.
Spezia Vs. Lanciano – Draw odds – 2.08
Cesena Vs. Juve Stabia – Draw odds – 2.1
Chievo Vs. Cagliari – Draw odds – 2.3
Cittadella Vs. Reggina – Draw odds – 3.1
Crotone Vs. Modena – Draw odds – 3.3…
What’s Messi worth to Barcelona?
I recently asked a similar question of Gareth Bale and last night made me feel a move for Mr Bale is almost certain this summer when Spurs fail to qualify for the champions league.
But back to last night.
I must admit I was anticipating that Barcelona would ‘go for it’ from the off in an attempt to get an early goal and put pressure on Bayern early on, but it never came. Bad tactics, poor motivation? It seemed something …
Seeded vs non-Seeded tournaments
We have a couple of classic divergences being display in full glory in the markets at the moment.
In Melbourne we have the Australian open Tennis where, in a seeded tournament, the semi finals look like they will be played out amongst the top four seeds. Seeded tournaments are basically there to ensure the top competitors have every chance of meeting in the latter stages.
In the UK, I just watched Bradford City complete a remarkable cup run to make …
Goal fest
More amazing score lines in the premier league yesterday, but an interesting peice of psychology appears to be at hand.
A friend of mine sent me a text last night to exclaim just how many goals there had been this season, to which I replied, ‘It feels like it doesn’t it’. There-in ensued an argument about whether there actually had been more goals or not.
Yesterday we had a 3-4 and a 7-3, on boxing day an 8-0. Both very …
Is the Queen a West Brom supporter?
While watching MOTD 2 the other day, I noticed that the Queen has been pretty busy.
Not only did she manage to visit the prime ministers cabinet meeting this week, but at the weekend I seem to have caught her watching West Brom vs West Ham. See picture: –
Clever ways to trade and visualise football data
Market data can be boring in it’s flat form format. By re-interpreting this data you can not only get a bit of depth in a market but perhaps see things you haven’t seen before. I tend to visualise data, because this allows you to look at the data in a much more intuitive manner and this means you can spot opportunties easier as it significantly aids your reading of a market.
In the embedded video we use the multi market …
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