Tag: soccer
Are traders really the dominant force on Betfair?
You often read about traditional backers (or layers) moaning how traders ‘mess up’ the market.
I’ve posted elsewhere on the blog that I actually think trading creates a range of new opportunities for traditional strategies because they often chase prices into value territory, without actually realising it. So much so that I’ve started taking advantage of outlier prices. But that point aside, I do often wonder just how much trading goes on and on what scale? We already know you …
Fergie time
Here is an interesting piece from the BBC website about Manchester United and extra time. I did an article for a magazine around four years ago on exactly the same subject, I think I may have blogged on it as well at some point. Unfortunately the BBC didn’t pick up on that, but hey I’m not bitter about it!
However this is well constructed and a good summary of the situation relating to whether teams get additional time when they …
Tactical football trading
As is well publicised, I started my odyssey in sports when I was very young, analysing footy matches looking for draws.
I still endlessly search for new information, a quest to find something that hasn’t been found before. To give you some hope if you are doing the same, I am always finding new things. Sometimes by looking for something else.
I recently revisited how a football match unfolds and if there was information contain in the first half stats …
Interesting week ahead
We have a really decent week ahead of us on the markets. Lots of sporting and non sporting action ahead and some interesting markets.
The ATP World tour finals start this week in London and volumes will be high. If you get the chance book a ticket and go and watch it. It is very entertaining. Nothing like the stuffy experience of Wimbledon, where you can’t even get a ticket anyhow! Be aware of the different scoring system at this …
Trading the unexpected
Reading 5, Arsenal 7 – This was obvious the stand out football result from the last week. A most remarkable scoreline.
For so many goals to be scored in one match is rare, especially seven goals away from home; though Leeds fans may have more recent memories. But to win 7-5 from 4-0 down is remarkable. I’ve been scanning my records to see if I could find an example, but I can’t. 4-4 draw’s are rare, but I do …
A evening that’s overs before its started?
Not quite as uncompetitive as the recent International football but still some, theoretically, one sided matches this evening.
I’ve just ploughed through my spreadsheets and they seem to be forecasting around 24 goals this evening. On eight matches that averages out to just under three a game, hence the headline. Most goals are expected in the Barcelona, no surprise there, and least in the BATE v Valencia match, but most are towards the higher end of the scale. Curiously this …
Money buyers of the world unite!
World Cup qualifiers are the order of the day again and we have some highly uncompetitive matches on the card. So uncompetitive you would be sorely tempted to re-mortgage the house and lump it on a few on these matches. The Czech’s are 1.08 to beat the mighty Malta at home. If that’s not good enough, Netherlands at 1.01 to attack Andorra looks tempting. But the daddy of them all is England to beat San Marino at 1.01. Surely worth …
Mass aggregation
A rather opaque title for a football post.
This evening we have the Europa league football and I like this stage of the tournament because, as I mentioned in my other post recently, the mass of markets means I can make a hash of things and most likely still end in profit. Actually I didn’t say that, I said that you could improve your expectation of a profit by spreading your risk. But I hope you see what I …
Careful with your Europa league research
Looking forward to the slew of Europe league matches this evening. But anecdotally I have to remind myself to be careful with my early round research.
Could have been last year or the year before, but my wife confronted me with some words after she went to use Google and it showed the suggestion ‘Young boys’. Suspicions rose even more when I tried to explain by telling here ‘Young boys come from Wankdorf’, talk about digging yourself in a hole! …
Trading ‘to be relegated’ markets…
As the new season is upon us all football fans up and down the country will no doubt have fresh hopes about what the season will bring. Transfers will have been done and hopes raised. But what is it that makes a team successful? What is the most defining characteristic. That’s simple, it’s money!
Comparing the finishing positions of premier league teams over a number of seasons and several Deloitte reports, reveals a strong correlation each year between wage bill …
Are Celtic better than a savings account?
When news came out that Rangers will start the Scottish season in divisions three, my head started spinning at all the permutations for next season. I always remember the fantastic Gretna, who rose from obscurity to become the punter and traders best friend, then promptly vanished as fast as they had risen.
In this case it’s almost the opposite. Rangers have been unceremoniously dumped from their elite status to the lower ranks of Scottish football. If Rangers can keep …
Spain vs Italy
An interesting set up for the final. I’ve had a really busy week, again, so I’ll be taking it easy and will trade pre-off, but sit down and watch the match.
The match is priced for just over two goals with an extra 0.40 going to Spain. It’s basically saying you have two even teams but Spain are effectively at ‘home’.
I know I often post this sort of comments, but I’m not sure if people pay much attention to …
Extra time and the ‘to qualify’ market
At last this week, I have finally got the chance to have a play around in the ‘to qualify’ markets in extra time.
These are some of my favourite in-play markets on footy because you can, to a certain extent, frame your upside and downside risk. The downside will always be a goal, but the upside is relatively neat and frequent on both teams.
As the teams play out extra time, if the match remains level, the odds on either …
Italy vs Italy
I looked long and hard at this evening’s match in Kiev and I, like the market, am finding it difficult to split the result.
I think the main reason for this is that I think both sides will cancel each other out. We have become used to Italian football being based around defense counter attacking play. Now England seems to have adopted this style as well. That seems to position the match for a low scoring nail-biter. Cue, a dramatic …
England v Ukraine
Since 1990 England have won 5/9 final group games while they are unbeaten since 1996 in nine matches against teams ranked 20-40 with six wins and eight of the nine matches finished with fewer than three goals. In group game three there have been 43 matches where a team has been ranked 11-30 places higher and that side has won 27 (63%) times. Moreover, this improves to a W15-D3-L4 record when they have won their previous match.
Information provided by …
Sweden v England
Sweden’s defeat against Ukraine means a result here is essential and they will probably need a significant improvement. Lower ranked teams that have lost their previous match and are playing a side coming off a draw have lost 7/11 Euro group stage matches with 6/11 having -2.5 goals including all five second group games.
11 of Sweden’s 19 tournament matches since 2000 have had -2.5 goals while they’ve drawn six of their last eight group matches against higher ranked teams …
What we learnt about England
It’s always worth looking at Statistics to tell you what really went on in a football match, rather than what you think you saw. So with that in mind here is a round up of some stats on the England match: –
First stop has to be be ‘fourfourtwo’ as it contains the most comprehensive and objective analysis of the match. Click here to read it in its full glory. There is an app you can download from iTunes which …
England expects….. Not very much
So here we are at the dawn of the Euro 2012 championships, full of hope optimism and … well, to be honest, if you are English you may be dreading it. So it reserve the optimism for other nationalities.
This must be the first tournament where universal optimism for England from English fans has vanished. Each tournament England fans generally go from skeptical to optimistic as the tournament approaches and the generally feeling on day one is ‘You know what, …
Di Matteo probably shouldn’t get the job
Congratulations to Chelsea on a remarkable champions league campaign. The campaign showed up the wonderful variability that is a football. Di Matteo and Chelsea must be on top of the world this morning, but if Chelsea are to build on this they need to start thinking about a new path for the future.
I see the win last night as the culmination of a very long campaign for Chelsea, but increased competition in the premiership means it’s time to build …
Champions league final
Is Chelsea’s name written on the cup?
Before we start, don’t forget to have a play with Soccer Mystic the unique profiling tool contained within Bet Angel.
It never pays to be emotional about anything that you are trying to make money on, and you could be excused for looking for a fairy tale tonight. But the reality is that Chelsea have a tough ask this evening. On the flip side, as we have seen recently, anything can happen …
Some key stats from Man City vs QPR
Well that was an interesting match wasn’t it? I went from thinking ‘I’d hate to be a Man City fan right now’ to ‘I’d love to be a Man City right now’, all in the space of a few minutes. You go all season without losing at home then almost blow it on what should have been one of the easiest matches of the lot. It was like Barcelona vs Chelsea but in reverse.
In total the match odds market …
A tale of last day relegation
Last day of the premiership today, hoping for a few twists and turns on the last day.
I recently watched Southampton get promoted to the Premiership. It’s the end of a seven year wait and has finally exorcised the ghost of relegation from seven years ago. But for me it also has been a point of closure after I sent my team down seven years ago! Well I say I sent my team down, I didn’t, but it felt like …
Cardiff fans turn red over blue
Continuing the blue theme from yesterday. Cardiff fans up in arms as the bluebirds look like they will be forced to change colour. Full story: –
However, the owner may have a point. I pointed out some scientific research on a previous blog post. One element of this was looking at the effect of red and blue and how it affects sports performance or the interpretations of officials in sports tournaments. The results were fascinating.
See the original blog …
Has the FA Cup lost its appeal?
Took some time out last Saturday to trade the FA CUP final pre-off. I was expecting a vibrant, lively market but ended up with the opposite and traded out for a small loss. The racing was yielding much more.
I was surprised at how little matched bet turnover there was. At the start of the FA CUP final there was matched bet volume of £3,533,632. On Tuesday night the same teams met again in the premier league and the matched …
Chelsea vs Newcastle stats
Here are some stats I have gathered for this evenings game: –
Chelsea have scored an average of 2.29 goals per home game and have failed to score on 6% of occasions. Chelsea have conceded an average of 1.24 goals per game and have kept a clean sheet on 29% of occasions. On average they score a total of +1.06 more goals than their opponents at home and each match has contained an average of 3.53 goals. When playing at …
Vital stats for the Manchester derby
Top Level
Man City are currently ranked 1st for their league form at home this season. They have won 94% of home games this season, drew 6% and lost no games. They are currently unbeaten at home. Man Utd are currently ranked 2nd for their league form away this season. They have won 78% of away games, drew 11% and lost 11% of games.
Number of goals scored
Man City have scored an average of 3.00 goals per home game …
More next manager markets, please
Not so long ago we bagged a really nice profit on the next Wolves manager market. For some time it looked like the world and his dog wanted Harry Redknapp to get the England job and it seemed a sensible appointment. You could have ad ‘arry to lay to 1.27 at best. But the FA, as they have proven on many occasions, are not the general population. They are a largely politcial entity.
Probably the broadest hint that Hodgson was …
End of season Italian football
As I have pointed out before, end of season Italian football can throw up some strange situations and odds. Today we have Atalanta vs Fiorentina where the draw was matched around 2.36-2.40 before the off. Currently it is 1-0 at half time, equaliser anybody? TBH though it doesn’t look like this match is headed for a draw at the moment.
Maybe it’s my imagination, but if feels like there are less of these matches this year than last, unless …
Last day nerves, apathy & the weather
When we approach the end of season crunch games, when relegation or promotion can be decided on the last game, look out for shocks. Also, in the mid division stuff, where there is little to play for; also look to the outsider. It’s at moments like these that you can find value in the markets. Normal statistical analysis becomes much less reliable at these points.
Look for early signs that a team that ‘has’ to do something is showing nerves. …
Barcelona vs Chelsea – The stats
OK, Barca are 1.28 to beat Chelsea. Barca are 1.49 to qualify.
Here is something for you to experiment with. Try looking at related markets using Bet Angel and linking it to a spreadsheet. By doing this you can easily set up a spreadsheet to work out all the derivatives this evening. For example, Chelsea would qualify it was 0-0 or say certain combinations of the correct score market came in, say they scored an away goal. Add up …
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