Tag: tennis
Shock or not?
All the talk during Wimbledon so far has been about the surprise at seeing seeded players crashing out of the tournament. Just how ‘shocking’ is it?
I looked backed at 12 years of Wimbledon and ranked each round by the lowest ranked loser in each round on the men’s Tennis. Averaging out the results in each round shows that there isn’t really much of a bias per round. The average rank of a losing player in any round is more …
Bartoli Bonkers
I fancied the Stephens vs Bartoli match above others yesterday because it looked much more competitive. It turned out to be a very interesting match.
Bartoli was soundly disliked for pushing for a rain break when the crowd wanted more action, but the break didn’t do much to diminish her spirit and she closed out the match. In fact it looked like a bit of gamesmanship from Bartoli. She demanded to stop play at 4-5 to her and 40-40 on …
When is a Tennis player most likely to hold serve?
If you back a player before they serve, they are very likely to win their service game. At which point the odds will contract and you can net a profit, hurrah! Sounds easy, but nothing ever is that simple is it?
So, one itching question I sought to solve last year was “Which game is a player most likely to win on serve”. The hypothesis was that the propensity to win on serve is higher at some times than others.…
An Ace is worth more than a point
When you read that statement it looks a little strange. How can one point be worth more than another? But statistics seem to show that’s true.
Over the last couple of years, I’ve been busy collecting data on a range of Tennis matches from the top level of how a match played, in games and sets, right down to individual points.
I’ve been carefully examining how one point affects another and spotted what seemed to be a bias on serving …
Retirements at Wimbledon
What a strange day that was yesterday? Most of the commentators were a little perplexed by the unfolding retirement situation and then to top it off we have defending champion Federer out in road two, which opens up the tournament significantly for Mr Murray.
But of course the talk was all about the large number of retirements, so lets see if it really was that unusual.
Checking back on women’s Tennis at Wimbledon there have been 12 retirements and three …
Can you predict 1.01 defeats in Tennis?
Surface problems aside, the main news from Wimbledon this week was the ‘shock’ defeat of Rafa Nadal, shortly followed by Federer. Nadal was a shock, apart from the fact that last year he crashed out in similar circumstances, it was just a round later. Coincidence, predictable or a shock?
A couple of factors play into the hands of the Nadal shock this time. The first is that Rafa’s game leads him to get injured more often than other players, he’s …
Wimbledon stats
I’ve written up Wimbledon in one sort or another for quite a few years now. Some of the stats are obvious, some less so. I’ll see if I can find the time over the next two weeks to put up some stats, as well as some summaries of interesting matches or scenarios. I’m looking forward to Wimbledon, though I should point out that I won’t be starting in earnest until Tuesday this year. I need a rest after Ascot! I’m …
AEGON vs. AEGON
Just watching the action at Queens club at the moment and thought I scout around for any characteristics I could find.
I recently ranked all tournaments by volatility, amongst other things, and noticed something curious about the AEGON grass court championships.
If you look at last year at Queens the data seems to indicate that there were no matches that swung from 1.01 to a loss. Now it’s not impossible that I have missed the odd match, so please correct …
Short priced Tennis finals
We’ve reached the closing stages of the French Open and have ended up with two short priced favourites for both finals. One is the function of the seeding and draw, the other through form.
Of the two matches the women’s final looks to hold more potential, if Sharapova can come up with a game plan to unsettle Williams. In Tennis the most common tactic is to come out all guns blazing and try and get a quick break in the …
Finals day at Roland Garros
Ha, it’s obviously not, but it may well as be. The match of the men’s tournament is upon us and deserves a lot of attention today. Nadal has ended up playing Djokovic in the semis thanks to his 3rd seed status, but it’s a match befitting the final.
On the other side of the draw Tsonga is the big benefactor of Rafa’s seeding and has an intriguing match against Ferrer.
Here are some stats for the Djokovic vs Nadal match, …
Doing a back flip
The quarters are on us in the French Open Tennis and at first sight they look uncompetitive. The favourites are very short against their opponents. But when trading you are not that interested in how short a price something is, more where it can do.
So on short priced Tennis matches I’ll often try and do a ‘back flip’. I’ll happily back the outsider on the basis that if the short priced favourite doesn’t grab the match by the scruff …
History made at the French Open
The French Open is at the quarter final stage now and it’s generally been good stuff so far. Not as many major shocks as you could have wished for, but plenty of competitive swingy games. It’s generally been good trading fodder and the average range of volatility this year has been above normal. So I would imagine a lot of people have managed to pick up some decent results.
Because it’s been above average don’t get suckered into believing you …
French Open Tennis – Thank you again Monfils
A nice couple of contrasting matches yesterday.
First of we had Nadal slip to a set down and 0-3 down in the second set tie break. Of course, he dug deep and pulled himself out of trouble. But you would probably be quite surprised how often favourites get into trouble at short odds. The key factor being that the opponent really has to take them game to the favourite right from the off to stand any chance of winning; so …
Roland Garros on the horizon
The European clay court season is in full flow now and Rafael Nadal lifted his 40th career title on clay and 5th title this year at the Madrid Masters. On the women’s side Serena Williams successfully defended her Madrid Open title and kept her world #1 status in defeating Maria Sharapova. This was despite a massive scare in the quarter finals. We now move to Rome for the ‘International BNL d’Italia’ which will be the last tournament before Roland Garros.…
Nadal scrapes through in Monte Carlo
Rafael Nadal prepared for his assault on the French Open by narrowly beating unfancied Russian Grigor Dimitrov today.
I love matches like this because, unless you are a value seeker, there isn’t much point in backing somebody, Nadal, at such short odds. So much risk and so little reward. So you inevitably end up laying the red hot favourite or backing the rank outsider.
Dimitrov lost, 2-6, 6-2, 4-6, Nadal using the ninth game effect to push for a break …
World #2 status awaits Murray
The semi final went pretty much the way we expected. Gasquet put up a lot of resistance but Murray eventually won out. It may for a nice trading set up, you can see the charts here.
No Tennis match can have a certain outcome but the case for a Murray win against Ferrer looks compelling and this will set up Murray in prime position for a massive seedings boost.
Ferrer has the better of Murray 4-0 on Clay, …
Gasquet vs Murray – Sony Open Tennis – Miami
This is an intruiging match.
Murray will be keen to win this tournament as he will move up to world number two and that will result in some decent seedings, so a big incentive to win.
Gasquet has been playing well so far and will fancy taking the game to Murray at some point you would think. He was at a short price against Rochus, bigger odds against Youzhy, came through a competitive match against Alamgro but sailed through when …
Some statistics on the Aussie Open Tennis
I’ve started digging my way through my data and notes, so here is some data. Only mens at the moment. I’ve made my comments strategy neutral, so you will have to work out from it what it from you wish!
The average number of games per set was 9.81 which is above the long term average, this was a more competitive tournament than usual. You have to go back to the 2000 tournament for a higher number.
The average number …
Key turning points in a Tennis match
When trading you want to look for key moments to trade in and out. Sometimes these can be arbitrary, a goal up, a goal down, certain times. A set up, a break up etc. etc.
Today I saw a turning point in the Australian Open final that I hadn’t witnessed before and one that I had.
I’ve mentioned before about how players are keen to get opponents out of the zone where possible, but today this happened in an unusual …
Is Tennis trading a load of old balls?
Ever the researcher, I have been browsing some books and documents recently. I stumbled across an interesting document that relates to whether new or old balls are an advantage in a Tennis match, it gave me some food for thought. It relates mainly to Wimbledon but it’s got me thinking about other surface types also and whether the same thing would be applicable there or whether this is an anomaly.
So for my first serve, stop reading for a second …
Visualising sports trading data
You may have noticed my regular theme of visualising data. Why do I do this?
The reason is simple, it’s easy to pick up patterns when you are looking at them visually. If you have to plough through billions of rows of spreadsheets, pivot tables or outputs from a database, you may find some of the more obvious patterns may elude you due to number blindness. Visualise it and it often leaps right out at you.
Bet Angel contains a …
Aussie Open serves up another classic tennis match
Anybody trading on Sunday was treated to another classic Tennis match in Melbourne.
Stanislas Wawrinka shocked world number one Novak Djokovic by racing to a 6-1 first set lead. Djokovic was clearly in trouble and needed to stage a big fight back or hope that Wawrinka faded.
Being the champion that Djokovic is, he dug deep and started the fight back. This match exhibited perfect trading characteristics again. It was another match, where if you were trading, you couldn’t lose. …
It will get you in the end…
There is one definable characteristic in Tennis that allows you to predict how a player will perform year on year.
It’s age….
There is also definable characteristic with most gamblers, it’s called the gamblers fallacy. Basically people back things because they either expect them to continue, or they expected a ‘trend’ to reverse. In Tennis this often leads people to consistantly back dominant players to win or back once great players expecting a ‘return to form’.
To pick up …
Australian Open Tennis
The start of the year is a great time to get some Tennis trading experience under your belt.
The Australian Open is the first grand slam tournament of the year and usually presents some good opportunities. Last year we were treated to a legendary final which I documented on the blog. The final turned over £46.2m in matched bets in total. The thread on the forum documented a lot of the action during the course of the tournament and …
Home advantage
One rule I have, is to favour positions where they is a psychological bias in the in the underlying event. What do I mean?
Take a look at the post I made about the Olympics not so long ago. This post documented home advantage bias with some academic evidence and concluded by explaining a number of reasons why this exists.
Imagine in a football match that we have a strong home team playing a weak away team and the away …
US Open tennis trading – The final in numbers
Just when you think sport in the UK couldn’t reach any higher it does. A slightly belated look at the final.
A fantastic and well deserved win for Murray. It’s a huge achievement and long overdue for UK tennis. You sensed with his Gold Medal victory that he could pull this off but it was hell of a battle to finally do it. I am sure I wasn’t the only one muttering at Djokovic for putting up such a fight …
Wind assisted Tennis trade
Here is a neat insight into something that happens that you don’t realise the significance of at the time.
Last November I went to the World ATP finals in London, I watched Berdych vs Tsonga. I was sat opposite the service line, a useful spot to watch a match when you are interested in some of the finer detail. The thing they caught my eye was how high Berdych threw the ball before he served. I took some photo’s of …
Tennis trading – Faking it
Great match last night between Tipsarevic and Ferrer, probably one of the best of the tournament for trading. I was getting a bit tired though near the end. Two of three kids are back at school and it’s early mornings again!
Ferrer went a set up only to find himself two sets to one down, only to turn it around and win on a tie break in the fifth. This match is a great illustration of how some matches are …
Trading Tennis – The US Open
While the summer evening racing markets have finished, thanks to the US Open tennis there is still plenty to do in the evenings at the moment; as long as it’s not raining! It’s raining at the moment, which is why I thought I would pen this post.
Because of the time difference to the US, it is a really useful tournament to trade and the level of interest in a grand slam will ensure good liquidity. It’s a good opportunity …
Trading tennis – Some stats on efficient pricing
Caroline Wozniakci crashed out of the US Open last night after starting at odds of 1.10, or a 91% chance of winning. I am the only one thinking that perhaps McIlroy’s should be banned from seeing Caroline at major tournaments?!?!
This is being heralded as a ‘shock exit’. But how much of a shock is it? I looked at all the results from the first round of action at Flushing meadows and it reveals a wonderful thing about the market. …
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